Natural resources, governance, government expenditure, and environmental sustainability in east Africa: A dynamic panel analysis

Global warming and carbon dioxide emissions are critical global challenges that threaten environmental sustainability. This study examines the impact of natural resources, government expenditure, governance, economic growth, industry, population growth, and agricultural emissions on environmental sustainability in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya in selected East African countries using data from the World Bank Indicators (1990–2023). Governance and environmental sustainability are represented by regulatory quality, the rule of law, and CO2 emissions, respectively. The study employs the Im, Pesaran and Shin and Fisher Panel unit root tests as well as the Kao panel cointegration test. Panel unit roots reveal that all variables are non-stationary at level and stationary at first difference. The study identifies long-run relationships among these variables. The system dynamic panel technique results indicate that CO2 emissions, government expenditure, industry, and population growth contribute to environmental degradation, while natural resources, governance, and economic growth enhance sustainability. These findings suggest that governments in East Africa should strengthen environmental policies, promote green energy adoption, and enhance governance quality to mitigate environmental harm.