Identification of coefficients and prognosis by the simplified model of disease transmission from people to people

Author: 
Annia Ruiz Sánchez, Elvis da Silva Rodrigues, Sandy Sánchez Domínguez, Adolfo A. Fernández García and Antonio I. Ruiz Chaveco

This article makes use of a model of differential equations that simulates, in a simplified way, the transmission of diseases from people to people; making use of a data table, the coefficients that characterize the model are identified and from this a graph of the system trajectories is made. Here, a period of transmission of COVID 19 in the state of Amazonas is used as data and compared with a period of transmission in the province of Santiago de Cuba. In both cases, it predicts what may happen in a period later than that studied.

Paper No: 
4594